Coastal evolution  the interaction of many geologic and hydrodynamic processes at a multitude of spatiotemporal scales  is notoriously difficult to understand and predict.  Nevertheless, reliable, quantitative predictions of long-term coastal evolution on decadal to centennial timescales are increasingly sought for adaptation planning in anticipation of climate change and sea-level rise.

Working with the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) team at the U.S. Geological Survey, I developed a long-term shoreline change model called CoSMoS-COAST(Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool).  The model integrates longshore and cross-shore sediment transport processes by waves and sea-level rise to predict shoreline change on a variety of timescales.  The model uses an extended Kalman filter data-assimilation technique to auto-tune model parameters and improve confidence in long-range shoreline predictions.  The model was applied to predict shoreline change by 2100 on 500 km of coastline in Southern California.  With the CoSMoS team, I am looking to extend the analysis to Central and Northern California, and other coastal settings worldwide.


Photo of Bridlington, England by my friend and colleague Pat Limber